Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD for September 11, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6676

R2: 1.6625

R1: 1.6565

Current Spot: 1.6478

S1: 1.6409

S2: 1.6383

S3: 1.6325

Technical summary:

We are not really getting anywhere as this pair trades sideways. The big question is, of cause, whether this is bottom-consolidation and soon we will see a break above resistance at 1.6565 as the first good indication, that this wave ii is finally over and wave iii higher is developing for a rally higher towards 1.7274 followed by 1.7780 as the next major target. Or is this just another consolidation before the next push lower towards the invalidation point at 1.6325. If we at any time break below 1.6325, my preferred count will be invalidated and the alternate downward count steps up to be the preferred count. The alternate count calls for a continuation lower towards 1.6117 before the c-wave of an expanded flat correction finally comes to the end and wave iii higher can develop.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR with a stop at 1.6320. If you are not long in EUR, wait for buying EUR upon a break above 1.6565 with the same stop at 1.6320.

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Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY for September 11, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 134.48

R2: 134.14

R1: 133.81

Current Spot: 133.27

S1: 132.72

S2: 132.35

S3: 131.95

Technical summary:

This pair is working its way higher towards the perfect target at 134.48 after we have begun the thrust out of the triangle consolidation. We will likely see a minor top at 134.14 for a correction towards 133.81, just follow the next rally higher to the ideal target at 134.48. Once at 134.48 we should expect a new correction towards 132.72 before the next impulsive rally higher towards 138.62. As we are in an impulsive wave higher, we should expect, that corrections will tend to be relatively small.

Trading recommendation:

Stay long in EUR from 130.75 and move your stop higher to 132.30. If you are not long in EUR yet, then buy near 132.72 with the same stop at 132.30.

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#USDX Analysis for September 10, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar index fell within our target of 82-81.80 as mentioned in yesterday's post. The downward correction could be over now as prices retraced 50% of the entire rise from 80.76.

The Dollar Index is very possible to have completed 5 waves from the low upwards, although the formation is not perfect. The decline has made a low at the 50% retracement of the entire upward move from 80.76 to 82.67. This is scenario implies that if prices start again to move upwards in an impulsive pattern, then we can see a new high soon as a part of a new wave structure. The decline, however, shows a very interesting pattern. The decline as shown in the 1-hour chart looks like another 5 wave downward move. Therefore, the correction may only have finished wave A downwards and we can see an ascending wave B and a descending wave C to complete the correction from 82.67.

The scenarios are equally possible as the decline is impulsive and this means further downwside pressures are to be expected. We could see an upward bounce towards 82.20-30 as the part of wave B corection and then a new low with wave C towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. However, if prices manage to break above 82.55, this scenario will decrease chances. Because of the wave scenarios are equally possible and the current price action shows possibility of a bounce we are cautiously bullish as long as prices trade above 81.71. Now, at 81,87, we could enter half exposure than normal long and wait for a new high above 82.67 to add to our positions. This way, in case of a correction, it is not over and a new low towards the 61.8% retracement is made, we would risk less than usually.

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USD/CAD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for September 9, 2013 Trend News

Two months ago, the USD/CAD pair rose steeply approaching the key resistance level of the ascending channel around 1.0530 as depicted in the chart. This happened when the pair established a consolidation range between 1.0450-1.0560 that expressed a false bullish breakout above 1.0555, which was followed by intensive bearish pressure that led to the breakdown of 1.0450 and 1.0380 with a record low of 1.0254.

As depicted in the chart, a prominent bottom was established around 1.0260. Since then, the pair has been bullish.

The bulls managed to break above 1.0460. That is why the price level of 1.0505 has been visited quickly.

Important level is located around 1.0505 (a previous mid-range). This was the key level for last week's movement as re-closure below it enabled the pair to reach 1.0455, where the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range is located.

The price level around 1.0455 remains the nearest considerable resistance for the pair, a valid SELL entry is recommended at retesting with SL located above 1.0500.

The nearst support zone is located around 1.0355-1.0345, where bullish pressure may be applied to push the pair again towards 1.0450.

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EUR/JPY H1 Analysis for September 9, 2013 Trend News

General overview for 09/09/2013 10:00 CET

The price has gap up after the weekend and now it is trying to hold the gap.

Any kind of acceleration to the downside after the gap is closed would confirm the impulsive bearish scenario. For more confirmation of downward wave i at 129.87 should be taken out and DEMAND area of 129.26 - 129.40 should be exposed for a test.

In higher time frames there is still a trendline that acts as resistance for the price (green line) and as long as there is no break out of this line this pair is still in complex triangle consolidation. That means the beige rectangle in the chart must be broken to confirm a breakout. A high of this zone is the 132.42 level.

Support/Resistance:

132.61 - WR1

132.42 - Swing High

132.16 - Intraday High

131.19 - Weekly Pivot

131.01 - Intraday Support

130.80 - Gap Low

130.26 - WS1

129.87 - Intraday Support

129.26 - 129.40 - DEMAND ZONE

Trading recommendations:

If the low of the gap will not hold, then shorts should be in play for intraday scalping entry with SL above the gap high and TP at 130.26 and even 129.87.

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#USDX Analysis for September 9, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar Index has broken down on Friday and is now trading just above 82.10. Raising the stop for bulls to 82.40 on Friday protected the long positions and the index is still trading lower. The upward move from 81.10 is most probably over and the index is now in a corrective movement.

This downward correction does not seem to be over yet. However, if prices break above 82.30, there might come a re-test of the recent highs. Prices are now trading in the vicinity of the previous 4th corrective wave of the upward wave from 81.10.

Prices are most probably making the 4th wave related to the previous 3 wave action from 80.76. The 5th upward wave should be expected this week towards 83. Concluding, we remain neutral after Friday waiting for new trading signals. Prices are expected to end the downward correction somewhere between 82 and 81.80. Breaking above 82.30 could be a bullish signal but we have to be very cautious as the correction seems incomplete. Longer-term view remains unchanged and bullish targeting the 84-85 price levels.

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Gold Elliott wave analysis for September 9, 2013 Trend News

Gold prices were very volatile on Friday. After reaching our 1,360 target, prices spiked upwards and reached 1,394. The resistance at 1,400 still holds and prices seem unable to break above that level.

Gold prices are expected to move lower once again as long as prices trade below the 1,400 resistance. The first bearish confirmation will come when prices break below 1,382. Next short-term support is found at 1,372 and then at 1,360. Our target will now be a new lower low towards 1,350-40. Short-term resistance is found at 1,394 and 1,400 and it is the most important one.

In the daily chart, there is evidence that as prices get near the blue upward sloping trendline, prices are supported. One more last leg down towards 1,350-40 can be seen during the start of the week, but breaking again above 1,400 will bring back buyers and a re-test of the highs. Concluding, we are cautiously bearish with 1,400 as stop. We target at 1,340-50 where the trendline is the support in the daily chart. Lower lows and lower highs confirm that the trend remains downward.

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