Friday, 23 August 2013

#USDX Analysis for August 23, 2013 Trend News

The Dollar strength was yesterday's main characteristic as prices after breaking above the 81.25-35 resistance moved towards our first target of 81.70-80. Prices now find themselves challenging the important resistance at the 82 price level. Breaking above this resistance will decide if the intermediat term trend will change to up or remain down.



The price will need to break out and above the sideways huge triangle that is being formed as shown in the hourly chart above. Prices need to break above 82 in order for the longer term trend to change to up. The price pattern still remains bearish as the sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains. This will change if prices break the 82 resistance.



In the daily chart we can very easily recognise the downward trend that puts pressure to prices. The downward sloping trend line places resistance at the 82 price level. Concluding, the price will need to break above 82 in order for trend to change. Despite the recent strong bounce from 80.75 to 81.72, the Dollar index could fall to new lows if prices get rejected at the trend line once again. As long as we stay below the trend line we are bearish or neutral. Breaking above will make us bullish biased.


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Gold Elliott wave analysis for August 23, 2013 Trend News

Gold has continued to rise upwards steadily towards 1,380 in order to test the resistance and previous high at 1,382. Since it has reached thus far, we believe it is only a matter of time that prices will break to new highs and may even reach the 1,400 price level. We were bullish from yesterday at the 1,370 level and prices are currently trading at 1,375. The price formation looks impulsive and the higher highs and higher lows confirms that trend is up.



Support is now found at 1,370 and 1,362. Resistance is found at 1,384 and 1,392. Trend is up and our view remains bullish as long as support holds. Prices are bearly trading within the upward sloping channel retaing the upward momentum. We believe a final upward break towards 1,400 will come soon and there are also some wave relationships that may justify an even bigger rise.



If the longer-term resistance at 1,400-1,410 is broke, prices could move towards 1,450 and even 1,550. But until then we have to pay close attention to the current price formation and the support levels at 1,360-70. If these levels are broken we can see prices fall towards 1,310. Concluding we are short term bullish as long as prices hold 1,362 and target 1,390-1,400.


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Thursday, 22 August 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for August 23, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 133.81 (top on May 22)


R2: 132.74 (top of wave c of the triangle)


R1: 132.34


Current Spot: 132.14


S1: 131.92


S2: 131.52


S1: 131.05


Technical summary:


We have seen the expected rally towards the triangle resistance-line near 132.00 and we will now be looking for the final e-wave of the triangle. This e-wave could fall all the way towards the the triangle support-line near 129.00, but it is more likely to end early, which would likely mean a termination of wave e close to 129.60. Once wave e is in place we should be looking for a new impulsive rally higher towards 140.98 as the next major upside target, but longer term we are looking for much higher levels closer to 170.00


Trading recommendation:


Look to buy EUR at 130.10 or upon a break above 132.74 (buy at 132.85). Place your stop at 127.90 expecting to be able to rais it soon after your entry.


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Silver attempting to push higher. Flat for now. Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


Silver is looking to push higher up towards the next resistance level at 24.80/25.00. It is recommended to exit short positions for now and remain flat. A major reversal structure could be unfolding at the moment and a push through 24.80 would confirm the same. The metal would turn to buy on dips from there on. Int support is 22.25 and below that is 19.00; while resistance is 25.00. On the flip side, a failure to break the recent swing highs at 23.60 would again bring back bears into action and we shall consider initiating short positions again.


Trading recommendations:


Flat for now.


Good luck!


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Gold resistance seen at 1,425.00. Exit short positions. Remain flat Trend News


Technical outlook and trading setups:


The metal is trading in a tight range for now. It is recommended to exit short positions and remain flat. It is possible that Gold pushes higher up towards next resistance ahead at 1,425.00 region before a meaningful correction takes place. Currently trading at the 1,370/71.00 levels, the metal faces immediate support at the 1,348/50.00 region which was marked as past resistance turned support now. A push above 1,385.00 would ascertain that 1,425.00 is on cards. Aggressive traders can turn long now with a higher up target at 1,420/25.00. Conservative approach would be to remain flat and commit after 1,425.00 is reached. As noted here, the rising trend line support is at 1,320/25.00 levels which is a good entry level to buy.


Trading recommendations:


Flat for now.


Good luck!


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EURJPY rallies as expected. Stay long Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The currency pair rallied as expected above 131.00 levels on the backdrop of the FOMC minutes out last night. It is recommended to remain long for now since and also buy further on intraday dips. Resistance is placed at 132.00/50 and 133.80/134.00; while intermediary support is at 128.00, followed by 125.00 and 119.00 respectively. The overall structure is that of a rising wedge and hence a break higher should be expected from here on. Also please note that the single currency pair has bounced off the 0.618 fibonacci support at 128.00 of the recent upswing from 125.00 to 132.00/50. Looking higher from here on.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, set stop at 128.00 (would revise soon), target is open.


Good luck!


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Wednesday, 21 August 2013

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for August 22, 2013 Trend News


Today's Support and Resistance levels:


R3: 171.53


R2: 171.00


R1: 170.74


Current spot: 170.47


S1: 170.00


S2: 1.6967


S3: 1.6934


Technical summary:


We are still looking for a top of wave i near 171.00 and should be ready for the first sizable set-back since this rally took of from 1.6325. The ideal target for this wave ii correction of wave i will be at the 38.2% retracement target at 1.6804. That said, we must remember that the corrections during wave i has been sub-normal and therefore we will have to monitor the coming wave ii closely, but for now let's focus on getting the top of wave i in place near 1.7100 and then where we can expect wave ii to end.


Trading recommendation:


We continue to stay neutral and wait for a wave to develop. We recommend placeing a EUR-buy order at 1.6810.


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