Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 21, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.7189

R2: 1.7113 (New top)

R1: 1.7050

Current Spot: 1.7004

S1: 1.6970

S2: 1.6918

S3: 1.6881

Technical overview:

We saw a new top at 1.7113 yesterday, so from an Elliott Wave Perspective we now have a five wave rally since the 1.5080 low. That does not mean we think this rally is over, but we are for sure moving closer to the point in time, where we should expect a bigger correction. As an minimum for this rally, we expect to see 1.7162, where black wave v will be 38.2% of the distance traveled from the bottom of black wave i to the top of black wave iii. However, it is more likely that we will see a continuation higher towards 1.7400, where black wave v will be 50% of that distance and lastly it could move towards 1.7640, where black wave v will have traveled 61.8% of that distance. Which target is more likely? We think that the 1.7640 target is the most likely target, but from now on a top can be put in at any time.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6450 and will move our stop higher to 1.6820 (protecting as much of our profit as possible). We will place our take profit + revers of the long EUR-position to a sold EUR-position at 1.7600. Any new buying should be handled with care.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 20, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.7023

R2: 1.6982

R1: 1.6937

Current Spot: 1.6876

S1: 1.6825

S2: 1.6789

S3: 1.6740

Technical overview:

We saw red wave ii of black wave v end at 1.6615 yesterday and as it would be expected of red wave iii, it was very explosive. However, we expect that it was only the first part of red wave iii and that we should soon see this rally higher continue towards 1.7109 and higher towards 1.7320. In the short term we are looking for support at 1.6810, which will ideally protect the downside for the next impulsive move higher towards resistance at 1.7109.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6450 and will move our stop higher to 1.6610. If you are not long EUR already, then buy near 1.6810 or upon a break above 1.6937 (one order done cancels the other) with the same stop at 1.6610.

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/JPY for June 20, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 129.95

R2: 129.34

R1: 128.78

Current Spot: 128.59

S1: 128.09

S2: 127.81

S3: 127.44

Technical overview:

After the break above important short-term resistance at 126.91 we expected a rally higher towards 128.28. We have seen a rally beyond that point, but it is no crucial any way. A break above resistance at 129.34 would not be expected, but only a break out of the falling channel will indicate that the wave 2 correction from 133.81 ended early and the next impulsive rally higher in wave 3 has already begun. However, if resistance at 129.34 protects the upside for a break below 127.81 and, more importantly, a break below 127.05 we know that we have a top in place for a new decline towards strong support at 124.96.

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 128.20 and has placed our stop at 129.40. If you are not short EUR already, then sell EUR on a break below 127.82 with the same stop at 129.40.

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AUD/USD - Key level 0.9519 - daily strategy for June 19, 2013 Trend News

The Australian dollar has been pushed down below the weekly pivot line, which is located at 0.9519. We see that it is still very difficult to sell the Aussie at this level again in the medium term. We hold our bearish outlook to the 0.9270 area, but in the coming days the pair may move upwards only if it is trading above 0.9520. So we recommend buying the pair only if on the H4 it is above this level. On the other hand, below 0.95 sales are secured to the first weekly support of 0.9375 and below even up 0.9181. The Momentum Indicator formed a bullish channel, due to that this channel has not been broken, it is likely that the Aussie gains bullish momentum to 0.9713.

If you need personal consultation, Skype: gerardofx or contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

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GBP/USD - Bearish outlook for June 19, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

This morning the British pound looked very bizarre in the American session, it moved without a clear direction. But also without the upward force shown in the previous days. The decline of British currency to 1.5640 could mean the beginning of medium-term downtrend. However, if you look at the chart, this pair is above the weekly pivot and below the 200-day EMA. It looks a bearish movement for the next few days will be observed, but since today relevant data will be revealed it is very likely to be volatile. Therefore, if the pair makes a pullback on the weekly R1 around 1.5799, you can sell only if the pair meets resistance, if you see this area fails you must wait until the next resistance to sell. We do not recommend buying at current levels because the Momentum Indicator is showing a bearish signal, which is most likely the decline of the pair.

If you need personal consultation, Skype: gerardofx or contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com

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Elliott Wave analysis of EUR/NZD for June 19, 2013 Trend News

Today's Support and Resistance levels:

R3: 1.6913

R2: 1.6870

R1: 1.6825

Current spot: 1.6768

S1: 1.6742

S2: 1.6710

S3: 1.6669

Technical overview:

We are currently in black wave v higher from the 1.6388 low. Since the low at 1.6388, we have seen an impulsive rally to 1.6825. It marks red wave i and we are currently in red wave ii, which we expect needs one last decline to just below 1.6669 before the next rally higher towards at least 1.7109 and more likely higher towards 1.7372 in an extension in red wave iii. As long as short-term resistance at 1.6825 protects the upside we are expecting the decline towards 1.6669, but a break above 1.6825 indicates that red wave iii is already under way higher.

Trading recommendation:

We are long EUR from 1.6450 with a break-even stop at 1.6450. If you are not long EUR already, then buy close to 1.6669 or upon a break above 1.6825 (one order cancels the other) with a stop at 1.6450 too.

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EUR/JPY Elliott wave analysis for June 19, 2013 Trend News

Today's support and resistance levels:

R3: 128.50

R2: 128.28

R1: 127.78

Current spot: 127.53

S1: 127.23

S2: 126.92

S3: 126.13

Technical overview:

When strong short-term resistance at 126.91 was broken, we knew that we need a rally towards 128.28 before the next attempt to break below strong support at 124.96 will be seen. We have seen a test of 128.11 till now, and as long as support at 127.23 protects the downside we expect that we will see one last rally higher to 128.28 before the next decline sets in. However, a break below 127.23 and, more importantly, a break below 126.91 will confirm, that we already have terminated the correction from 124.96 and a new test of this important support should be seen. In the longer term, we are still looking for a break below 124.96 for a decline towards our ideal target near 118.73, where wave 2 will have corrected 38.2% of wave 1.

Trading recommendation:

Our stop at 127.10 was taken out, but we fixed a nice profit all the same. We are looking for a new EUR selling opportunity and will sell at 128.20 or upon a break below 127.23 with a stop at 129.40.

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