Monday, 3 June 2013

EUR/JPY Elliott Wave analysis for June 4, 2013 Trend News


Today's support and resistance levels:


R3: 130.94


R2: 130.77


R1: 130.48


Current spot: 130.22


S1: 129.93


S2: 129.46


S3: 128.98


Technical overview:


We have seen the expected breakdown from the b-wave triangle and are now looking for a continuation down to at least 128.25, but we still think a more likely target will be close to 125.87 for wave c. However, that would not be enough to fullfill our wave 2 target at 118.73 so it is more likely than not, that the decline from 133.81 down to 125.87 only will be the first zigzag correction and that we will see at least one more or maybe even two more. That said, we should stay focused towards the downside and look for a break below 129.93 as the trigger for the next decline towards 128.25 and likely 125.87. Until we see the break below 129.93 we expect resistance at 130.48 will protect the upside.


Trading recommendation:


We short EUR from 131.92 and will move our stop lower to 131.20. If you do not have short positions on EUR already, then sell upon a break below 129.93 with the same stop.


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USDX: Daily analysis for June 03, 2013 Trend News

Daily chart: The USDX is trying to break the support at the 83.22 level, having had a week very bearish, which managed to break the strong support at the 83.74 level. There is the possibility that the USDX will makes a bullish rebound above this support level, which is unlikely in the short term, because the technical indicators are showing weakness in the USDX. If the USDX achieved in breaking the support level at 83.22, it would be expected to fall to the level of support 81.74. On the other hand, if the USDX makes a bullish rebound on this support, it would be expected to rise again until the resistance level at 83.74. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory, supporting a bearish outlook in the medium term, for this market.







H4 chart: The USDX is trying to form a higher low pattern, above the 200-day moving average and support at the 83.17 level. It would be very difficult for this market, the power to break these supports and the bullish trend line there below the 200-day moving average, because the USDX is bouncing on these levels and may again try to break resistance at the 83.49 level. On the other hand, if the USDX breaks the bullish trend line near the 93.00 level, it is expected to fall to 82.50 level in the medium term. The MACD indicator is moving into positive territory, which could predict rebounds bullish potential in this market, for the next few hours.







H1 chart: The USDX continues within the range between 83.52 and 82.97. The 83.27 level is acting as temporary pivot point in this market, which begins to form a Point of Control (POC). These levels will be vital for the development of the trend in this market, for this week. Above the resistance level at 83.52, a fractal resistance is formed and it is also located at 200-day SMA. If the USDX manages to break the resistance 83.73 level, it would be expected to rise to the level of 84.03. On the other hand, it is possible that the USDX is forming a higher low pattern on the support at 82.97 level and if this market can break this level, it is expected to fall to the level of 82.66. The MACD indicator is in negative territory, but gradually this territory is weakening, so it could be changed to positive territory for the next few hours.







Fundamental Outlook: For today's session at 14:00 GMT in the United States ISM Manufacturing PMI (Previous: 50.7 / Forecast: 50.6) will be published. If the current reading is higher than the forecast, the USDX market could make bullish movements during the hour.







Trading recommendations for today: Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the USDX market breaks with a bearish candlestick, the support level is at 82.97, take profit is at 82.66, and stop loss is at 83.28. Place buy (long) orders only if the USDX market breaks with a bullish candlestick, the resistance level is at 83.73, take profit is at 84.03, and stop loss is at 83.43.


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Friday, 31 May 2013

EUR/USD - Bearish outlook - for May 31, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

The EUR/USD pair recovered slightly from a decline it suffered early in the European session on Friday after data on German retail sales was published. It unexpectedly fell 0.4%, also unemployment rate in the eurozone set a new record. It stood at 12.2%, which although was in line with analysts' expectations. Now this pair has reached 1.3050 level, the recovery of the pair is for me a good opportunity to take bearish position with targets at 1.2877 and 1.2750. One should expect a daily close above 1.31, to consider buying this pair. So we suggest to sell at any price below 1.3050. On the other hand, the Momentum Indicator is showing divergence, thus, the pair may fall for the next few days.



If you need personal consultation, Skype: gerardofx or contact me via e-mail: gerardo.porras@analytics.instaforex.com


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Silver remains buy on dips. 21.95 immediate support Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The metal remains sideways, but the bias would be towards buying on dips. It is recommended to hold on long positions initiated earlier, and buy the remaining on dips towards 21.20/40. Resistance remains fixed at 23.40, followed by 24.00, 25.00 on the higher side; while support is at 22.00, followed by 21.20/40 and lower towards 20.00 level. Overall structure remains constructive for bulls and upside extensions are pointing towards 25.00 and 26.00. Bottom formation is seen at 20.00 and fresh lows should not be printed.


Trading recommendations:


Remain long, buy further on dips, stop is below 21.00, and target is open.


Good luck!


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Gold broke above 1,415.00 yesterday. Initiate long positions Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The yellow metal finally rallied through the 1,415.00 resistance level yesterday. It is recommended to initiate 50% long positions now, 1,412.00, and the remaining on dips towards 1,400.00 level. Please note that 1,395/1,400 levels which was past resistance shall now act as support from here on. The overall structure remains constructive for bulls now and the rally should accelerate towards 1,500/25 levels in the sessions to come. Higher up resistances are at 1,450/60, 1,488.00 and higher, while support is at 1,400.00, 1,375.00, and 1,350.00. Looking higher for now.


Trading recommendations:


Initiate 50% long positions, buy further on dips towards 1,400/1,395, stop is at 1,370.00, and target is open.


Good luck!


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EurJpy slides on trace. Watch out for break below 130.00 accelerate Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


The single currency pair has done with testing the back side of the immediate line of support, as depicted here. It is looking for a break below 130.00 for the fall to accelerate rapidly. Immediate resistance would be 132.00 level, followed by 134.00; while supports would be 129.00 and 127.00 on the lower side. It is highly recommended to remain short and also look to add further on rallies. The current wave structure would be possibly a Head and Shoulder and a huge retracement lower could be under way. The extensions are pointing towards 127.00 and 123.00 atleast. Looking lower for now.


Trading recommendations:


Remain short, add further on rallies, stop is at 134.25, and targets are at 127.00 and 123.00


Good luck!


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GbpChf: Downfall should accelerate. Hold on to short positions Trend News


Technical outlook and chart setups:


There is structurally no change from what has been discussed lately. The single currency pair should accelerate towards downside from here pretty quickly. Please note that immediate resistance is now at 1.47 level, followed by 1.48 and 1.5; while support is at 1.44, 1.4075 and lower. Overall structure is bearish and the prices have reacted right at the sloping trend line as depicted here. Hence it is highly recommended to remain short from here on and also plan to add on rallies. The downside extensions are pointing towards 1.4 and lower. Looking lower till prices remain below 1.47/1.48.


Trading recommendations:


Hold on to short positions, add further on rallies, stop is at 1.48, and target is open.


Good luck!


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