EUR/USD. Forecast for April 2, 2013 Trend News

Yesterday the data on PMI Manufacturing in the US in March was released. It was worse that forecasts but the markets’ reaction was moderate. US Construction Spending was up 1.2% against expectations for 1.1%. The information from Europe and the US which has been released today was negative. Spain plans to revise down its economic GDP growth forecast for 2013 next week. Spain’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be forecast to shrink by 1% rather than 0.5%, a government source told Reuters. A federal judge ruled Monday that Stockton in California with 300,000 residents is eligible for bankruptcy protection, over the objection of creditors who argued the city could come up with more money. However, it did not have great impact on the market; it fell moderately 0.04%, the euro grew 32 points.

Today at 12:00 GMT+4 PMI Manufacturing in Eurozone in March is published; it is expected to be flat 46.6.At 13:00 GMT+4 Unemployment Rate in Eurozone in February is issued. It is expected to be 12% vs. 11.9% in January. At 18:00 GMT+4 US Factory Orders in February; it is forecast to be 2.9% vs. -2% in January. Positive news is in the US. Thus, we suppose that on Thursday on the ECB press conference Mario Draghi will resort to aggressive way of presentation.

Technically, there are prerequisites for the growth continuation; the price has reached the resistance of the indicator lines on the H4 and the first target is resistance of trendline on the level of 1.2895. The second target is the area of 1.2915/20, the resistance on the daily chart and the level of Fibonacci 314% on the H4, then 1.2965 (the lows of March 1 and 7) and 1.2995 (the high of March 18).

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NZD/USD: technical analysis for April 2, 2013 Trend News

Overview :

The NZD/USD pair (Kiwi Dollar) continues its movement straight from 0.8300 (at H4 chart 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels, as well it is probably going to retest it again). Therefore, the Kiwi has shown signs of strength following the break of the highest level of 0.8300, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart (strong support) with the first target of 0.8400 and further to 0.8450 (it will act as a strong resistance for that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide at 78% of Fibonacci). However, in case reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.8350, the market will lead to further decline to 0.8310, in order to indicate a bearish market.

Note:

• It should be noted that it is possibly that the price will be trapped between: 0.8410 and 0.8325 this week.


• Range for yesterday was only 34 pips, hence the market indicates the lower volatility (volatility: 28.45).

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

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Silver remains constructive with double bottom formation seen at 28.00 Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

As seen on the 4H chart depicted here, Silver seems to have formed a double bottom at 28.00 level as it was discussed last Friday. A morning star appearing at support level is a sign of bullish reversal ahead, and one should position on the long side from here on. Immediate resistance is at 29.20/30 and this should be broken, to confirm further. Support is just below 28.00 level and it has held till now. Moving ahead, till the time prices stay ahead of 28.00, bulls should remain in control and resistances lined up from 29.50, to 30.30, 31.20, and higher up should be broken in the coming trading sessions. Bottom line: Silver is preparing for an April rally, till it remains above and holds 28.00 levels from here on.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at 27.00, and target is open.

Good Luck!

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Gold remains unchanged for now. 1,660.00 next target Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Looking into the 4H chart view presented here, Gold still remains constructive for bulls and a break above 1,615.00 now, would target 1,660.00 level quickly. Please note that the yellow metal has remained sideways since the recent swing lows at 1,555.00; the consolidation sequence has been of constant resistance at 1,615.00 level and increasing supports from 1,555.00, 1,560/65, and 1,580.00. Currently trading at 1,600.00 level again, it is pretty close to breaking out above the resistance line shown here. As discussed earlier, sideways breakouts are very powerful and hit targets (here at least 1,660.00 level) pretty fast. It is again recommended to remain long and use intraday dips as great opportunities to build long positions. Bottom line: Looking higher from here on.

Trading recommendations:

Remain long, stop is at 1,550.00, target is open for the long term. 1,660 is immediate.

Good Luck!

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EurJpy dips but 119.00 holds. Remain long for expected final rally Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

As seen on the 4H chart view here, the single currency pair seems to have again tested 119.00 level before bouncing back. Shorter timeframes indicate a possible pullback rally from here on. As shown here, the immediate/intermediary support is just below 119.00 level and it has held till now. As we have been discussing earlier, even if prices were to fall back towards a low (below 119.00), the 3 wave counter trend structure needs to be completed. Hence a minimum lower high should form above 126.00 level in the coming sessions. Only a break below 118.50 from here would nullify a possibility of the rally. Till then, it is recommended to remain long. Resistance is seen at 124.00 level, followed by 126.00, 127.90, and 128.00; support is at 119.00 level, followed by 117.00, 116.00 and lower. We shall discuss the larger wave structure if 118.75 is broken today.

Trading recommendations:

Stay long for now, stop is at 118.40/50, and target is 126.00 at minimum if not higher.

Good Luck!

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GbpChf stalling ahead of 1.4530, marked as resistance Trend News

Technical outlook and chart setups:

Looking into the 4H chart view depicted here, the single currency pair has been stalling recently, just ahead of resistance marked at 1.4530/40 levels. Furthermore, 1.4450 is also 0.786 resistance of the downswing from 1.4530/40 to 1.4000 earlier. Please note that the inner support line has been broken and the prices seem to be testing backside of the line which is past support turned resistance now. A push below 1.4380/70 mark would re-affirm that bears are back in control and that the counter trend (up) is over. Therefore, it is recommended to remain short from earlier positions and also look to add fresh positions now if required. Till the time prices are below 1.4530/40 levels, looking lower. The scenarios would change if 1.4530/40 gives way. In that case, we shall shift focus to buy on dips.

Trading recommendations:

Remain short for now, stop is at 1.4580, and target is below 1.4.

Good Luck!

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EUR/USD - key level of 1.2880 - for March 29, 2013 (daily strategy) Trend News

Yesterday the euro raised its head after the downward pressure, rejecting the level of 1.2750. Now it is trading above the 1.2820 level. If you noticed the pair is trading below the 200 day moving average, which adds the pair a bearish outlook in the medium term. Therefore, do not buy at the current levels unless the pair trades back above the 200 day moving average periods. On the other hand if the pair rejects this level, we can sell below 1.2875 with objectives to the level of 1.2750 and below to the level of 1.2640. On the other hand, if the pair closes above 1.2880, we can buy with objectives to the psychological level of 1.30 and to closing the gap at 1.3174. The Momentum Indicator is in positive territory, showing a recovery in the euro for the next few days.

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