USD/CHF: Weekly Technical Levels for October 15 - 19, 2012 Trend News

Weekly Technical Levels:

Tip (s):

• R3 and S3 can be both regarded as clear indicators of the maximum range of extreme volatility, though it is possible to pass them through.

• Pivot lines can be applied well on the sideways markets, as the prices will probably be located between R1 and S1 lines.

• Within a strong trend, the price is expected to be lower than the pivot point line and will continue the movement.

• If the breaking news may affect the market, the price is likely to go straight through R1 or S1 and even reach R2 & R3 or S2 & S3.

Observation (s):

• If the trend is of an upside character, then the strength of the currency will be defined as following: USD is an uptrend and CHF is a downtrend.

• Fibonacci retracement is used to determine accurate psychological level of support and resistance. The period of time should be taken into account.

• Fibonacci is in a range trader; it looks like the trend is trapping and going up or down. If you sell or buy for a long term in this period, sure you'll lose your profit.

• Stop Loss should NEVER exceed your maximum exposure amounts.

• As a rule, the market has a high volatile if the last day had a huge volatility.

If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.

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GBP/USD Intraday Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for October 15, 2012 Trend News

The GBP/USD pair reacted strongly towards 1.6300 – 1.6350 zone confirming the bearish retracement scenario expected in the previous weeks.

The bearish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern on the 4H chart, which was confirmed on Friday, enabled 1.6060 level as a full target for the pattern which got hit on Monday with further decline towards 1.6000.

GBP/USD expressed daily closure below the lower limit of the depicted bullish channel which extended the bearish movement towards 1.5970 which has been providing considerable support for the pair so far.

Support: 1.6020, 1.5970, and 1.5920.

Resistance: 1.6125, 1.6160, 1.6260, and 1.6315.

The current price zone (the lower limit of the depicted 4H channel) is providing support until now and the pair is probably forming a short-term bullish Head & Shoulders pattern targeting 1.6105. However, the pair is showing some bearish dominance today.

A long-term support is seen around the price level of 1.5920 (50% Fibonacci Level). However, the recommended trade is to SELL the pair at retesting of the lower limit of the broken channel around 1.6160 with SL located above 1.6215.

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for October 15, 2012 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing impulsive (3) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger wave 5 (coloured blue). During the Friday's Asian and early European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 1.0247 toward the 1.0289 level. Therefore, during the late European and New York sessions the AUD/USD pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing lower reaching a new low at 1.0216 level. At the moment this currency pair is trading around 1.0235 level and we are expecting to see price lower in the next few days. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0004 (161.8 of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0293 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor AUD Home Loans m/m, New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m, U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m, and FOMC Member Lacker Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0172 (S2) 1.0200 (S1) 1.0217 (PP) 1.0245 (R1) 1.0273 (R2) 1.0290 (R3) 1.0318

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0220 with Stop Loss 1.0293 and Take Profit at 1.0004 are recommended.

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USD/CAD Wave Analysis for October 15, 2012 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave

Last week the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move, developing impulsive wave (3) (coloured orange) of the bigger wave 5 (coloured purple). During the Friday's Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement toward the 0.9767 level. Therefore, during the early New York session the USD/CAD pair did not manage to hold this level and price started pushing higher reaching a new daily high at 0.9808 level. Today during the Asian session this major currency finished developing of the corrective (2) wave (coloured green) at 0.9810 level and price started pushing lower. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with Fibonacci Extensions (0.9834-0.9762-0.9799), with Take Profit at 0.9695 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9835 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor U.S. Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m, FOMC Member Lacker Speaks and CAD BOC Business Outlook Survey, and BOC Gov Carney Speaks data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9750 (S2) 0.9766 (S1) 0.9775 (PP) 0.9790 (R1) 0.9806 (R2) 0.9815 (R3) 0.9830

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 0.9780 with Stop Loss 0.9835 and Take Profit at 0.9695 are recommended.

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USD/CAD Wave Analysis for October 08,2012 Trend News

USD/CAD Elliott Wave



For the last few days the USD/CAD pair was trading in a downward move developing impulsive wave (1) (coloured orange) of the bigger wave 5 (coloured purple). During the Friday's European session we could observe strong descending movement from 0.9810 towards 0.9734 level and we can consider this move as the end of the impulsive wave (5) (coloured green) of the bigger wave (1) (coloured orange). Therefore, during the New York session the USD/CAD pair started pushing higher when development of the corrective wave (2) (coloured orange) started. This major pair is trading around 0.9890 level at the moment and we are expecting to see price around 0.9827 soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave C should retrace 100% of the wave A, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave A, with Take Profit at 0.9839 (100% of wave A). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 0.9771 level as Stop Loss. Also you need to know that U.S. and Cad Bank have holiday today so we do not expect too much volatility today.



Support and Resistance

(S3) 0.9666 (S2) 0.9701 (S1) 0.9743 (PP) 0.9778 (R1) 0.9820 (R2) 0.9855 (R3) 0.9897

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 0.9795 with Stop Loss 0.9771 and Take Profit at 0.9839 are recommended.

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for October 08,2012 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave

Last week the AUD/USD pair was trading in a downward move, developing impulsive wave 3 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (3) (coloured green). During the Friday's Asian and European sessions we could observe sideways movement between 1.0272 and 1.0240 level. Therefore, during the early New York session the AUD/USD pair broke support and price reached a new low at 1.0152 level. This currency pair is trading around 1.0165 level at the moment and we are expecting to see price higher today when development of the wave 4 (coloured blue) starts. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 4 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0250 (100% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0125 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks and ANZ Job Advertisements m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0009 (S2) 1.0080 (S1) 1.0132 (PP) 1.0203 (R1) 1.0255 (R2) 1.0326 (R3) 1.0378

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upward movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0180 with Stop Loss 1.0125 and Take Profit at 1.0250 are recommended.

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AUD/USD Wave Analysis for October 05,2012 Trend News

AUD/USD Elliott Wave

Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair was trading in an upward move, developing corrective (4) wave (coloured purple) of the bigger wave 3 (coloured blue). Yesterday, during the European session the AUD/USD pair was trading in a sideways move between 1.0182 and 1.0237 levels. Therefore, during the early New York session this currency pair broke resistance at 1.0235 level and price reached a new daily high at 1.0272 level. We can consider this move as the end of the (4) wave (coloured purple). The AUD/USD pair is trading around 1.0245 level at the moment and we are expecting to see price around 1.0126 level soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 5 should retrace 100% of the wave 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1, with Take Profit at 1.0126 (100% of wave 1) and Take Profit 2 at 1.0035 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use invalidation at 1.0326 level as Stop Loss. Also it is necessary to monitor U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings m/m data that can change the rate of the pair.

Support and Resistance

(S3) 1.0142 (S2) 1.0176 (S1) 1.0198 (PP) 1.0232 (R1) 1.0266 (R2) 1.0288 (R3) 1.0322

Trading Forecast

Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the downward movement. That is why short positions at level 1.0240 with Stop Loss 1.0326 , Take Profit at 1.0126, and Take Profit 2 at 1.0035 are recommended.

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